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Start with the actual Opta supercomputer odds for the 2026 finals. Then layer in what the models leave out: live match-day stadium heat, the travel grind across three countries, and weather disruption. Watch who the climate quietly moves up, and who it moves down.
The three weights are rebalanced to total 100% automatically. Heat is split into how hot a team's venues run and how well the squad tolerates it, so warm nations take a smaller hit than cool-climate sides at the same exposure.
At default settings the climate layer does not crown an outsider, it re-sorts the contenders. The cool-climate European sides give ground. The warm nations and the heat-trained hosts gain it.
The 2026 final projects a heat-stress reading near 88°F / 31°C WBGT, the hottest of any World Cup final since USA 1994.Bloomberg · FIFA, FB Reference, Open-Meteo · Heat doesn't stop at the group stage
Every group game your contenders play, plotted by stadium across the three host countries. Pins are coloured by the live forecast heat at kick-off. Click a venue to see its games.
Four inputs per side, on a 0–100 scale. Venue heat is how hot their scheduled stadiums and kick-off slots run. Heat tolerance is squad and home-climate adaptation. Travel and weather are the logistical and disruption load.
Live hourly forecast from Open-Meteo for each stadium at kick-off, turned into an estimated WBGT heat-stress reading. This is what feeds the model in Live mode. Air-conditioned venues hold at the controlled floor; open stadiums take the full forecast. July knockout heat is still beyond the forecast window, so those stay on the historical baseline.
The real scores, layered onto the model as another parameter the moment they land, plus a running count of how many games have already been played in genuine heat or weather stress. Results from TheSportsDB, match-time conditions from Open-Meteo, refreshed automatically through the day. Move the Live results & form dial on the Predictor tab to change how hard reality pulls the odds.
Each team carries a climate-stress score built from three parts:
Those combine using your three weights into a single score S. Each team's Opta probability is multiplied by e^(−k × S), where k is the intensity dial, then everything is renormalised to 100%. At k = 0 you get the pure Opta odds back.
In Live mode, each team's heat exposure is rebuilt from the real hourly forecast at every group-stage stadium, at kick-off, pulled live from Open-Meteo in your browser using the actual fixtures, venues and local kick-off times. Air temperature, humidity and solar load are converted to an estimated WBGT heat-stress reading on the same scale as the Bloomberg figures. Air-conditioned and roofed venues (AT&T, NRG, Mercedes-Benz, SoFi) are held at the controlled 63.7°F (17.6°C) floor, with the outdoor reading shown for context. Each team's live exposure blends the average and peak across its forecastable games. July knockouts and any match beyond the roughly 16-day forecast window stay on the historical baseline, flagged as "Beyond forecast window" on the match cards. The WBGT figure is a shade-plus-solar estimate, not an official on-pitch measurement. Switch to Historical to run the model on Bloomberg's 2016–2025 climatology instead.
Spain 16.1%, France 13.0%, England 11.2%, Argentina 10.4%, Portugal 7.0%, Brazil 6.6%, Germany 5.1%, Netherlands 3.6%, Norway 3.5%, USA 1.2%, Mexico ~1.0%.
Sustained Futures helps purpose-led leaders build the AI and climate skills their teams actually need. Start with the free report, or book a call to talk it through.